Experts predict different verdicts in high-stakes Trump trial


In the highly publicized trial involving former President Donald J. Trump, the prosecution has concluded its arguments, leaving observers divided on the potential verdict. Legal experts, analysts, and writers hold differing views — a probable conviction, the chance of a hung jury, or even an acquittal.

Harvey Kushner, a criminal justice expert at Long Island University, underscores the trial’s political undertones, noting that even Robert De Niro’s speech at a nearby Biden rally reflects this aspect.

Defense lawyer Todd Blanche heavily questioned Cohen’s credibility, while government attorney Joshua Steinglass emphasized alternative evidence against Trump.

Experts and their views on the verdict

Kushner expresses concerns about the jury’s makeup, heavily influenced by mainstream media critical of Trump, which raises doubts about impartiality.

While some experts view a conviction as likely, others such as Mark Graber from Francis King Carey School of Law, anticipate scenarios like a hung jury.

Political strategist John Feehery leans toward an acquittal, characterizing the case as weak.

Here are some insights from two political analysts/writers:

Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and elections analyst at 538, clarifies that while they don’t provide a forecast for the Trump trial, the consensus among legal experts suggests two main potential outcomes: either Trump will be convicted, or the jury will fail to reach a verdict, leading to a mistrial. Considering the compelling evidence and the probable lack of Trump-friendly jurors in New York, it appears improbable that all 12 jurors would agree on a not-guilty verdict.

Monica Potts, senior politics reporter, adds that for Trump to be found guilty of the felony charges, the jury must believe he engaged in those actions to conceal other crimes, such as violating election laws. This complexity may increase the likelihood of a hung jury. Moreover, since the pertinent facts of the case are already widely known, the trial’s reiteration of these details might not significantly sway voters.

With opinions split, the trial’s outcome remains uncertain, fueling intense public interest.

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